#4 KEEP’EM MOVIN DAN

Todd Pletcher’s barn has gone a bit cold recently, but that could very easily change with the introduction of a few more first-time starters, for which, Pletcher is very good with.

Keep’em Movin Dan has a lot of positives. 

His entire training regiment has occurred over the Saratoga dirt course, which he’ll be racing over Thursday.

In his last work, he went five furlongs from the gate in 1:00 1/5; the seventh fastest of 93 others at the distance.  He’s had several other good workouts as well, including a sub :48 work at four furlongs.

Among first-time starters, I’m most interested in horses I believe can make the lead out of the gate, and Keep’em Movin Dan seems to be poised to break well and do exactly that.

It helps that DISTORTED HUMOR offspring win 16% of the time in their first start and Keep’em Movin Dan’s dam, QUEEN OF MONEY, has six winners from six starters, including 2 stakewinners.

$10.00 To Win – #4 KEEP’EM MOVIN DAN
$10.00 To Place – #4 KEEP’EM MOVIN DAN
$10.00 To Show – #4 KEEP’EM MOVIN DAN

Saratoga – Race 4

#2 ISN’T THAT SPECIAL

In only two starts, Isn’t That Special has the top speed figure in the field and her front-running style should help her win this six-furlong sprint.

Except for LOVELY WILDCAT, the late pace numbers for the rest of her rivals are very poor, and it won’t take much to put the field away if Isn’t That Special is able to make the lead.  The inside post and her early pace numbers should help her bid.

It’s possible she will be clipped at the wire, but I certainly don’t see her finishing out of the top-3, so she seems like a safe play, and should pay on the full wager.

$10.00 To Win – #2 ISN’T THAT SPECIAL
$10.00 To Place – #2 ISN’T THAT SPECIAL
$10.00 To Show – #2 ISN’T THAT SPECIAL

Del Mar - Race 7

#2 CRY AND CATCH ME

Cry And Catch Me will make her three-year-old debut on Thursday, 10-months after winning the grade 1 Oakleaf in September 2007.

In five races at the distance, the speed has not been winning on the Del Mar all-weather track, but I’d expect that to change in this spot.  Cry And Catch Me should make the lead, and she has already won on the lead once over fake dirt, and also has a victory over the Del Mar track as a 2-year-old.

The drop in class is a bit of a concern, but trainer Bob Baffert has kept her on a regular training regiment throughout the spring and summer, so I’m not too concerned.  For the same reason, I’m not concerned about the layoff.

She should outclass this field, and her odds may be short, but she looks like a winner to me.

$10.00 To Win – #5 CRY AND CATCH ME
$10.00 To Place – #5 CRY AND CATCH ME
$10.00 To Show – #5 CRY AND CATCH ME

COMMENTATOR is certain to make a bolt for the front, but should be challenged by both SOLAR FLARE and TASTYVILLE.  TIMBER RESERVE may also figure into the early pace scenario, having to break from the far outside to secure running room up front.

Commentator, a classy sprinter, has world class speed and should benefit from his rail post.  However, the last time he raced at more than 1-mile was several years ago in the grade 1 Woodward Stakes at Belmont Park.  I expect Commentator to cook all of the front-runners, but I don’t think he’ll have enough in the tank to finish-off the rest of the field himself.

I’ll toss Solar Flare, Tastyville and Timber Reserve from contention given the presence of Commentator.  These are quality speed horses, but I don’t think they’ll be able to get over-top of Commentator, and that we’ll leave them in a less than favorable position to show their best.

Looking at the rest of the field, COWTOWN CAT is too slow for this group. 

MERCHANT MARINE is capable, but only has one win from further out than second, and that came among allowance runners.  Merchant Marine may find himself caught up in the early rush or he’ll likely be shuffled back.  Either scenario bodes poorly for the four-year-old gelding.

GRASSHOPPER hasn’t run well his last two outings and isn’t working especially well coming into the Whitney.  Despite some strong finishes, Grasshopper has played the bridesmaid many times, and has only one win among graded stake company.  That lone win occured in the grade 3 Mineshaft Stakes.  He’ll be facing tougher competition here.

It’s hard to peg how well STUDENT COUNCIL will run in this spot.  Trainer Steve Asmussen has run him over both polytrack and turf recently, with poor results; but Student Council did have a strong outing on Preakness Day in the Pimlico Special, winning that grade 1 by a neck.

Despite some quality wins, Student Council’s average speed figure is lower than what would be preferred for grade 1 company.  To his credit though, he does have two grade 1 wins.  Regardless, it would be a surprise for me if he were to win his third grade 1 among this group.

NOTIONAL is one of the few likely to be coming from off the pace, which seems to be the preferred running-style for the Whitney, considering the amount of speed having been entered.  The running-style certainly helps move Notional up, but I’d be concerned with a bounce performance coming of his grade 3 win less than a month ago at Monmouth. 

He does seem to prefer dirt, winning three of his last four races over a dirt surface.  He may run big, but at 5/1 morning-line odds, Notional seems like a slight underlay.

AP ARROW is a possible play in the Whitney.  At 10/1 morning-line odds, the value is attractive, and like Notional, he too could be coming from off the pace, which makes him a more promising wager in my opinion.  AP Arrow hasn’t returned to form since his fourth-place finish in Dubai earlier this year, and has yet to run well for trainer Todd Pletcher.  He has been working well over the Saratoga course the past month and could run well in the Whitney.  If he wins, he’ll have a nice price on him.

Which brings me to RISING MOON, who I believe is the best play this Saturday.  Rising Moon is lightly raced for a 5-year-old stake horse, but has dominated the fields he has faced recently.  His speed figures are right on par with the talent needed to win in this spot and he should be placed somewhere in mid-pack, which I also see as favorable spot.

I’ll forgive his last race because FOREST GIANT was given a free lead and wired the field in the Suburban Handicap.  Rising Moon should have an easier go of it Saturday when he makes a second attempt at graded stake company.  The 10/1 morning-line odds are quite favorable here as well.

$30.00 to win – #7 RISING MOON
$30.00 to place – #7 RISING MOON
$30.00 to show - #7 RISING MOON

Total Wager: $90.00
Total Budget: $405.00
Adjusted Budget: $305.00

#1 MARKET AT MIDDAY / #1A SMARTY MARTY

This is a safe play, but I believe a good one, none-the-less.

Taking the coupled entry in the fifth race at Saratoga Thursday includes a quality second-time starter and an offspring of SMARTY JONES.

The first is MARKET AT MIDDAY, who didn’t quite make the lead in her first start, but still managed to finish a game third, setting an impressive 94 BRIS speed figure in that run.  She is quite capable of winning in her second try.

SMARTY MARTY has a terrible name, but her mother has seven winners from seven starters, and her father is obviously Smarty Jones, who has sired one winner already in his young sire career.

I’ll take both of them.

$10.00 to Win – #1 Market At Midday / #1A Smarty Marty
$10.00 to Place – #1 Market At Midday / #1A Smarty Marty
$10.00 to Show – #1 Market At Midday / #1A Smarty Marty

Saratoga - Race 9

#4 NOTONTHESAMEPAGE

The feature race at Saratoga Thursday is the 150k grade 2 Sanford Stakes for two-year-olds.

Every entry in the Sanford Stakes is coming off a winning performance and most of the entries are undefeated colts.  It’s a quality field and many of these young colts have exhibited some early speed.

There is a significant speed bias at Saratoga at six furlongs and that could be accentuated by the weather this week, which has been, and continues to be on the wet-side.  Therefore, it is hard not to favor the speedier horses in this six furlong sprint.

NOTONTHESAMEPAGE will be the favorite, but I can’t ignore him.  His works have been nothing short of phenomenal for a 2-year-old and even with all of the opposing speed, he should be on the front.  If so, he’s going to be hard to catch and if anyone is able to go with him, his works and the 107 BRIS Speed Figure he put up in his last race seem to suggest he can outlast them.

Whoever does win this race is going to be a two-year-old to keep an eye on throughout the fall.

$10.00 to Win – #4 Notonthesamepage
$10.00 to Place – #4 Notonthesamepage
$10.00 to Show – #4 Notonthesamepage

Del Mar - Race 2

#6 ZANDA BLUE

For a turf race, there is quite a bit of speed in this one. 

Likely favorite, HARMONY CREATOR comes into the race with a wire-to-wire victory in only her second turf start; however, the early pace numbers show she didn’t need to expend much to get a 2 1/2 length head-start in that race.  She does have one synthetic victory by coming from off the pace, but generally she has done poorly when she is not on the lead.

Harmony Creator will face speed from GOODBYE LUCY on the rail and from GREAT GRACE to her immediate outside.  It will be very difficult for her to carry her speed to victory this time around and I would expect a bounce performance; likewise, the pace scenario bodes poorly for her other speedy rivals, who will face similar circumstances.

Of those most likely to be coming from off the pace, which the Del Mar turf course is playing favorably toward, the one with the most appealing late pace numbers is Zanda Blue, even though she has yet to race on a grass surface.  Her running-style seems to beckon the turf and she improved quite a bit extending out to a route distance in her last race, breaking her maiden in her third career start.  She has plenty of room to improve and her trainer, Thomas Bell, is having the majority of his success on turf, especially with dirt-to-turf starters.

The other possible play is LULLABYTIME, who is also lightly raced, and could also improve.  Lullabytime also won in her third career start last time out and is also racing on grass for the first-time, but unlike Zanda Blue, she has yet to race past six-and-a-half furlongs and her late pace numbers are not quite as favorable as Zana Blue’s.  Therefore, I believe Zanda Blue is the pick here and probably the best bet of the day.

$10.00 to Win – #6 Zanda Blue
$10.00 to Place – #6 Zanda Blue
$10.00 to Show – #6 Zanda Blue

Season / Last Week Summary:

NORTHERN RODES was a scratch last Thursday, which is too bad, because I really thought she was a good play in that spot.

WESTERN LEGEND went of an incredible 53/1 at post-time, and for the life of me, I still don’t understand why he was so ignored.  He finished third and paid a respectable $16.00.  It was a good long-shot play.

DISTANT VICTORY won at Del Mar and helped boost last Thursday’s profits.

Last Week: +$78.00
Season Total: +$70.50

Colonial Downs – Race 7 – Kitten’s Joy Stakes

#2 – MINT SLEWLEP

Mint Slewlep won his first career race on the turf over the Colonial Downs surface the last time out, coming from off the pace with a BRIS speed figure of 94.  He also had two solid races in April, setting two speed figures in the triple-digits.  That’s good enough to challenge any of his rivals in this spot, including favorite BALLAST.

Ballast is a solid horse, with a grade 3 win the last time out, but prior to that race, he also had a string of five races without a victory.   I’m going to try to beat him here and go with Mint Slewlep, who is younger and getting 5/1 morning-line odds.

Colonial Downs – Race 8 – Virginia Oaks

#4 – ATHENA’S GIFT

Athena’s Gift has one second and two wins in three career turf starts. She’s won her last two starts with respectable speed figures, demonstrating she belongs among this group, even though she has yet to run against stakes competition.

The Oaks should feature enough pace for her to have something to run at late in the race, and her running lines are what I like to see on turf.  Here late pace numbers are solid and she’s figured out how to win in the last few months.  Getting 8/1 odds, I’ll take them, and expect she’ll get her third victory in a row. 

She also shares the name of my wife, so how can I bet against that?

Colonial Downs – Race 9 – Virginia Derby

#2 – OLD MAN BUCK

The Virginia Derby has a severe lack of pace and I believe several entries could potentially run well. 

I’ll bet against SAILOR’S CAP in this one.  The turf course should be playing firm-to-hard this Saturday and I think that will contribute to a major bounce for Sailor’s Cap coming out of the Colonial Turf Cup.

Old Man Buck looks like the value play.  The pace looks like it will be slow, and Old Man Buck has the versatility to get the lead early or take over a bit late and still win.  He’ll be my top selection, but I would also consider GIO PONTI and it wouldn’t surprise me if COURT VISION runs well.

However, I don’t like the odds on Gio Ponti and though the talent is there for Court Vision, I simply don’t trust him enough to back him with a win wager.

BALTIMORE BOB seems awfully intriguing too.  I’m not sure he is talented enough to win, and you can call me crazy, but I have a feeling we’re going to see a strong performance from him this weekend.  I think he finishes in the money somewhere.

SELECTIONS:

$2.00 Pick 3 (Races 7-9) : #2 Mint Slewlep, #4 Athena’s Gift, #2 Old Man Buck
$2.00 Pick 3 (Races 7-9):  #2 Mint Slewlep, #4 Athena’s Gift, #4 Court Vision
$2.00 Pick 3 (Races 7-9):  #2 Mint Slewlep, #4 Athena’s Gift, #5 Baltimore Bob
$2.00 Pick 3 (Races 7-9):  #2 Mint Slewlep, #4 Athena’s Gift, #7 Gio Ponti

$10.00 Win – Race 7 – #2 Mint Slewlep
$10.00 Place - Race 7 – #2 Mint Slewlep
$10.00 Show - Race 7 – #2 Mint Slewlep

$10.00 Win – Race 8 – #4 Athena’s Gift
$10.00 Place - Race 8 – #4 Athena’s Gift
$10.00 Show - Race 8 – #4 Athena’s Gift

$10.00 Win – Race 9 – #2 Old Man Buck
$10.00 Place - Race 9 – #2 Old Man Buck
$10.00 Show - Race 9 – #2 Old Man Buck

TOTAL BUDGET: $505.00
WAGER TOTAL: $98.00
ADJUSTED BUDGET: $407.00

Your Round is the classic hanger, who hits the board quite often, but never tends to get the job done.  As such, he hasn’t won since breaking his maiden in his first race.

Your Round really took to the soft Colonial Downs turf on June 21st, but I’d expect the turf to be playing very firm this weekend.  He’s a bounce candidate and I don’t see him as a threat to win.

OLD MAN BUCK – 5/1 – Post 2

Old Man Buck seems like a very good value play in this spot.  As a two-year-old, Old Man Buck won three of four starts on turf.  In his only start as a 3-year-old, a grade 2 turf race at Churchill Downs a month ago, he set his best speed figure, and could improve further this weekend.

5/1 seems like an overlay.

EL SULTRY SUN – 10/1 – Post 3

El Sultry Sun is a solid colt and is very consistant.  He obviously didn’t like the soft turf he ran on June 21st, so a firmer surface should be to his advantage, but he would need to move forward significantly to claim victory.  Hitting the board is a good possibility, but I think asking anything more is asking a lot.

COURT VISION - 10/1 – Post 4

Court Vision certainly has the talent to win and you have to consider his only turf start came under very bad weather conditions, so he still may show some affinity for grass racing.  After all, despite the weather in the Colonial Turf Cup, he didn’t finish badly.

Court Vision may have been the victim of bad racing spots since he ran in the Ramsen Stakes back in November of last year.  I think we’ll see some improvement this weekend and he certainly wouldn’t be the biggest surprise. I’m guessing he’ll go off at lower odds than 10/1 though.

BALTIMORE BOB – 30/1 – Post 5

Baltimore Bob is working exceptionally well at Colonial Downs and there is a chance he might just thrive on the Colonial turf course. 

Even though he finished sixth in the Colonial Turf Cup, he did set the best speed figure of his career, and there is a chance he might improve on a firmer surface, which is what he has been working over recently.

Other evidence suggest he is too slow to get it done and thus the reason for his morning-line odds of 30/1.  But in my opinion, he has a better chance than some of his rivals who have morning-line odds quite a bit lower.

Don’t get me wrong, he would be a huge surprise, but I think we’ll see a decent run out of Baltimore Bob this weekend.

BUDGE MAN - 20/1 – Post 6

Budge Man will make his third start on turf this Saturday, with his best finish in two previous tries having been a fourth-place run. 

He has some late kick, and that should be to his advantage on turf, but his figures simply haven’t been where they need to be to challenge this field. 

I have to consider him a toss.

GIO PONTI - 9/5 – Post 7

I believe Gio Ponti is likely to go off as the post-time favorite.

As a two-year-old, Gio Ponti won two in a row before taking a break after an eighth-place finish.  He came back as a three-year-old and set the best figure of his career, wining by two-lengths against grade 3 competition.  If he were to repeat that performance Saturday, he would be a tough advesary for the rest of the field.

You have to like a horse who knows how to win, and three wins in four career races is a nice resume, considering it includes a couple quality wins. Gio Ponti looks like tough competition here.

SAILOR’s CAP - 8/5 – Post 8

In my opinion, Sailor’s Cap is a play against.  I have to believe he benefited greatly from the soft turf and bad weather on June 21st, setting a BRIS figure 13-points higher than any previous effort.

If you throw-out his Colonial Turf victory, his resume is less spectacular.  He does have a second-place finish is his only other graded stake try, but his two wins have come in an allowance race, which he only needed a figure of 78 to win, and his maiden victory.

Sure, Sailor’s Cap looks to be in form and is by no means a plodder, but at morning-line odds of 8/5, I’ll pass.

SOUTHWEST - 20/1 – Post 9

Southwest has an allowance win over the Colonial Downs turf course, but he only needed a speed figure of 83 to win that race.  In his only race against graded stake company, he was over-matched and finished a distant 8th.

He should be the longest shot on the board and I would have to toss him from consideration for the Virginia Derby.

#6 NORTHERN RODES

Northern Rodes has shown a propensity for wanting to run up-front, and despite some strong early pace numbers, she has had difficulty getting there, running in second many times.  This is probably due to the sprint fields Northern Rodes has been exposed to, but I think she is the lone speed here.

She turned in a good work this past week and was asked to go hard, so I think she is being prepared to go to the front in this one.

E-style and E/P-style runners are winning these races at a 76% clip.  Northern Rodes is a good bet in this spot and I think she’ll win race 2 Thursday.  She’s morning-line 9/2, and is definitely my best bet of the day.

$10.00 to Win – #6 Northern Rodes
$10.00 to Place – #6 Northern Rodes
$10.00 to Show – #6 Northern Rodes

Belmont - Race 4

#9 – WESTERN LEGEND

The betting opportunities on Thursday are thin, so I’m going to go chasing big odds in the  fourth race at Belmont, which features an entire field of first-time starters.

Western Legend’s Dam has two winners from two starters, including a stake winner.  He is bred through Mr. Greeley and Affirmed, so the blood lines are there for him to be a good one.

He’s had two good works over Aqueduct’s plastic dirt track and at 20/1, why not?  Give a gelding a chance.

$10.00 to Win – #9 Western Legend
$10.00 to Place – #9 Western Legend
$10.00 to Show – #9 Western Legend

Del Mar – Race 7

#7 – DISTANT VICTORY

Distant Victory is entering the third race of her career Thursday, and will try to pick up her second win. 

Coming off a solid work last week and a win last time out at the same distance she’ll be trying Thursday, she has a excellent chance of improving. 

Carla Gaines is winning more than 25% of the time under similar circumstances and finishing in the money nearly half.

$10.00 to Win – #7 Distant Victory
$10.00 to Place – #7 Distant Victory
$10.00 to Show – #7 Distant Victory

Season / Last Week Summary:

PIPER’s FORT missed the board.  SPRING ELUSION finished second for a $52.50 payoff.  EL SULTRY SUN was scratched in favor of the Virginia Derby this coming weekend.

Last Week: -$7.50
Season Total: -$7.50

In the Colonial Turf Cup a few weeks ago, Sailor’s Cap defeated YOUR ROUND, EL SULTRY SUN, COURT VISION, and BALTIMORE BOB in a torrential downpour that brought between three and six inches of rain in two hours.

Due to the stature of the Colonial Turf Cup and its role as the first leg of a turf race series, the stewards were obviously inclined to keep the race on the grass if at all possible.  Thankfully, no one was hurt that afternoon as lightning strikes touched down on the horizon and the rain fell in buckets.

The weather probably played to the favor of Sailor’s Cap.  The Colonial Turf Cup was not the first race won by the colt on soft or yielding turf conditions, and it’s hard to tell what negative impact it might have had on the rest of the field.

The weather is likely to be more cooperative this weekend and the very well maintained Colonial Downs turf course should be playing more fair.  For the returnees, I would ignore the Colonial Turf as a barometer for handicapping the Virginia Derby and focus on prior races, as it’s just to difficult to tell what impact the weather had that day.

Trust me when I tell you the weather was bad a few weeks ago.  If you watch the replay really close, I swear Edger Prado was carrying a canoe paddle, not a whip.

G2 Virginia Deby – 1 1/4 Mile on Turf
$750,000 – For 3-Year-Olds

1: Your Round
2: Old Man Buck
3: El Sultry Sun
4: Court Vision
5: Baltimore Bob
6: Budge Man
7: Gio Ponti
8: Sailor’s Cap
9: Southwest

#8 – PIPER’S FORT

Piper’s Fort has run BRIS speed figures of 93, 91 and 96 in his last three races, including a dominating win the last time out.  Those figures stand-out against this group of turf claimers.  He’s also stepping up in class and trainer D. Wayne Lucas wins 22% of the time moving up a class. Cornelio Velasquez will be in the stirrups, and he’s 2 for 2 on Piper’s Fort, winning by daylight each time.

Thursday’s race will be the first time on turf for Piper’s Fort, but he has the running-style to adapt well.  His late pace numbers a very good and the Belmont turf, as normal, has been playing toward the closers.  Morning-line odds of 5/1 seem like an overlay here.

$10.00 to Win – #8 Piper’s Fort
$10.00 to Place – #8 Piper’s Fort
$10.00 to Show – #8 Piper’s Fort

Belmont – Race 5

#3 – SPRING ELUSION

Spring Elusion is the lone speed in this one and with a favorable post, she should get out in front without too much problem.  In her four previous starts, she has been running mostly sprints, which are races generally featuring more competition for the lead.  In the one race that she did make the lead, she won by seven lengths. Her work under John Kimmel on June 29th seems to also support the theory for her to go out fast in her next start.

I’ll forgive her last outing because she was caught outside, which isn’t a good spot to be, especially for a horse who needs to be forwardly placed.  That race was also a step up in competition for her and she should have an easier time in this spot. 

She’s capable of running speed figures between 90 and 95, and with the potential for a good trip, she should turn over a figure in that range Thursday.  That’s good enough to hit the board here, and it’s plausible she’ll win.  At morning-line odds of 7/2, she jumps off the page.

$10.00 to Win – #3 Spring Elusion
$10.00 to Place – #3 Spring Elusion
$10.00 to Show – #3 Spring Elusion

Belmont – Race 8

#2 – EL SULTRY SUN

I doubt the 3/1 morning-line odds on El Sultry Sun will stick after ACAI scratches due to good weather in the New York area on Thursday; but who knows, the betting public does some odd things sometimes.

El Sultry Sun last ran in the abysmal Colonial Turf Handicap at Colonial Downs on June 21st.  I was there for that race, and the weather was horrible.  The race should have been moved to dirt, but given its stature as a grade 3, the stewards were very hesitant to move the race to dirt despite the presence of a severe thunderstorm.  The weather was so bad, the caller actually commented on the lightning strikes in the background as the horses entered the far turn, which you could barely make out through the rain.  The tenth race was canceled that day.

What I’m trying to say is you can completely throw out the Colonial Turf race and El Sultry Sun’s 7th-place finish.  If you do, the rest of his resume is quite good, with three wins, a second and a third in five attempts.  I think he has enough to get it done in this spot, but I doubt he’ll be much of a bet at the odds he’ll command.

$10.00 to Win – #2 El Sultry Sun
$10.00 to Place – #2 El Sultry Sun
$10.00 to Show – #2 El Sultry Sun

Summary:

I like the selections for race 1 and race 5 the most.  I’m not really excited about race 8, but I don’t see anything else on the Belmont card for Thursday, and I didn’t like the races I looked over at a couple other tracks either.  So I’ll stick with Belmont and these three. 

My best bet of the day would be Spring Elusion in the 5th.  If 7/2 odds hold up, that’s a pretty good overlay.

Curlin has turned in two works over the Churchill Downs turf in preperation for his debut on grass.  If all goes well, the ultimate goal will be to train Curlin up to the grade 1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in France on October 5th.

This Saturday should be interesting.  Curlin’s primary competition is expected to be Breeder’s Cup Turf winners BETTER TALK NOW and RED ROCKS.