The Whitney Handicap will feature plenty of speed this Saturday.
COMMENTATOR is certain to make a bolt for the front, but should be challenged by both SOLAR FLARE and TASTYVILLE. TIMBER RESERVE may also figure into the early pace scenario, having to break from the far outside to secure running room up front.
Commentator, a classy sprinter, has world class speed and should benefit from his rail post. However, the last time he raced at more than 1-mile was several years ago in the grade 1 Woodward Stakes at Belmont Park. I expect Commentator to cook all of the front-runners, but I don’t think he’ll have enough in the tank to finish-off the rest of the field himself.
I’ll toss Solar Flare, Tastyville and Timber Reserve from contention given the presence of Commentator. These are quality speed horses, but I don’t think they’ll be able to get over-top of Commentator, and that we’ll leave them in a less than favorable position to show their best.
Looking at the rest of the field, COWTOWN CAT is too slow for this group.
MERCHANT MARINE is capable, but only has one win from further out than second, and that came among allowance runners. Merchant Marine may find himself caught up in the early rush or he’ll likely be shuffled back. Either scenario bodes poorly for the four-year-old gelding.
GRASSHOPPER hasn’t run well his last two outings and isn’t working especially well coming into the Whitney. Despite some strong finishes, Grasshopper has played the bridesmaid many times, and has only one win among graded stake company. That lone win occured in the grade 3 Mineshaft Stakes. He’ll be facing tougher competition here.
It’s hard to peg how well STUDENT COUNCIL will run in this spot. Trainer Steve Asmussen has run him over both polytrack and turf recently, with poor results; but Student Council did have a strong outing on Preakness Day in the Pimlico Special, winning that grade 1 by a neck.
Despite some quality wins, Student Council’s average speed figure is lower than what would be preferred for grade 1 company. To his credit though, he does have two grade 1 wins. Regardless, it would be a surprise for me if he were to win his third grade 1 among this group.
NOTIONAL is one of the few likely to be coming from off the pace, which seems to be the preferred running-style for the Whitney, considering the amount of speed having been entered. The running-style certainly helps move Notional up, but I’d be concerned with a bounce performance coming of his grade 3 win less than a month ago at Monmouth.
He does seem to prefer dirt, winning three of his last four races over a dirt surface. He may run big, but at 5/1 morning-line odds, Notional seems like a slight underlay.
AP ARROW is a possible play in the Whitney. At 10/1 morning-line odds, the value is attractive, and like Notional, he too could be coming from off the pace, which makes him a more promising wager in my opinion. AP Arrow hasn’t returned to form since his fourth-place finish in Dubai earlier this year, and has yet to run well for trainer Todd Pletcher. He has been working well over the Saratoga course the past month and could run well in the Whitney. If he wins, he’ll have a nice price on him.
Which brings me to RISING MOON, who I believe is the best play this Saturday. Rising Moon is lightly raced for a 5-year-old stake horse, but has dominated the fields he has faced recently. His speed figures are right on par with the talent needed to win in this spot and he should be placed somewhere in mid-pack, which I also see as favorable spot.
I’ll forgive his last race because FOREST GIANT was given a free lead and wired the field in the Suburban Handicap. Rising Moon should have an easier go of it Saturday when he makes a second attempt at graded stake company. The 10/1 morning-line odds are quite favorable here as well.
$30.00 to win – #7 RISING MOON
$30.00 to place – #7 RISING MOON
$30.00 to show - #7 RISING MOON
Total Wager: $90.00
Total Budget: $405.00
Adjusted Budget: $305.00
Tags: Horse Racing Handicapping, Saratoga, Whitney Handicap, Commentator, Solar Flare, Tastyville, Timber Reserve, Cowtown Cat, Merchant Marine, Grasshopper, Student Council, Notional, AP Arrow, Rising Moon, Forest Giant
July 26, 2008 at 12:28 am
Yeah, Cowtown Cat has done absolutely nothing since that abysmal showing in the Derby last year, but something tells me that he’s about to make a resurgence. I think Bejarano could be the X-factor here.
I really wish Giant Gizmo was still in this one.
July 26, 2008 at 10:11 am
Cowtown Cat would be a big surprise for me. Even if he was fast enough, I don’t think the race plays to his favor. It would shock me if anyone in the top three or four at first call get the distance.
Plus, Saratoga has been playing quite fair for the sustaining runners due to all the rain they’ve received this week. If it rains today, the rail might go dead again and that would benefit closers breaking fromt he outside posts, and they usually pay big prices.
July 26, 2008 at 3:43 pm
Yeah Well !!! The real race here is going to be between Rising Moon and Solar Flare…. Take that to the bank Ricardo
July 26, 2008 at 6:37 pm
Yeah, I guess Bejarano isn’t THAT good.
July 26, 2008 at 8:40 pm
Haha. He did give Ginger Punch some kind of ride. That’s some heart on that filly. As for the Whitney, Rising Moon was hung wide early and if you look at where he was placed, he did not take too kindly to having dirt kicked in his face. For that matter, none of the others did either. The quick rain before the Whitney really helped Commentator; but that was still some performance from him.