YOUR ROUND - 15/1 – Post 1
Your Round is the classic hanger, who hits the board quite often, but never tends to get the job done. As such, he hasn’t won since breaking his maiden in his first race.
Your Round really took to the soft Colonial Downs turf on June 21st, but I’d expect the turf to be playing very firm this weekend. He’s a bounce candidate and I don’t see him as a threat to win.
OLD MAN BUCK – 5/1 – Post 2
Old Man Buck seems like a very good value play in this spot. As a two-year-old, Old Man Buck won three of four starts on turf. In his only start as a 3-year-old, a grade 2 turf race at Churchill Downs a month ago, he set his best speed figure, and could improve further this weekend.
5/1 seems like an overlay.
EL SULTRY SUN – 10/1 – Post 3
El Sultry Sun is a solid colt and is very consistant. He obviously didn’t like the soft turf he ran on June 21st, so a firmer surface should be to his advantage, but he would need to move forward significantly to claim victory. Hitting the board is a good possibility, but I think asking anything more is asking a lot.
COURT VISION - 10/1 – Post 4
Court Vision certainly has the talent to win and you have to consider his only turf start came under very bad weather conditions, so he still may show some affinity for grass racing. After all, despite the weather in the Colonial Turf Cup, he didn’t finish badly.
Court Vision may have been the victim of bad racing spots since he ran in the Ramsen Stakes back in November of last year. I think we’ll see some improvement this weekend and he certainly wouldn’t be the biggest surprise. I’m guessing he’ll go off at lower odds than 10/1 though.
BALTIMORE BOB – 30/1 – Post 5
Baltimore Bob is working exceptionally well at Colonial Downs and there is a chance he might just thrive on the Colonial turf course.
Even though he finished sixth in the Colonial Turf Cup, he did set the best speed figure of his career, and there is a chance he might improve on a firmer surface, which is what he has been working over recently.
Other evidence suggest he is too slow to get it done and thus the reason for his morning-line odds of 30/1. But in my opinion, he has a better chance than some of his rivals who have morning-line odds quite a bit lower.
Don’t get me wrong, he would be a huge surprise, but I think we’ll see a decent run out of Baltimore Bob this weekend.
BUDGE MAN - 20/1 – Post 6
Budge Man will make his third start on turf this Saturday, with his best finish in two previous tries having been a fourth-place run.
He has some late kick, and that should be to his advantage on turf, but his figures simply haven’t been where they need to be to challenge this field.
I have to consider him a toss.
GIO PONTI - 9/5 – Post 7
I believe Gio Ponti is likely to go off as the post-time favorite.
As a two-year-old, Gio Ponti won two in a row before taking a break after an eighth-place finish. He came back as a three-year-old and set the best figure of his career, wining by two-lengths against grade 3 competition. If he were to repeat that performance Saturday, he would be a tough advesary for the rest of the field.
You have to like a horse who knows how to win, and three wins in four career races is a nice resume, considering it includes a couple quality wins. Gio Ponti looks like tough competition here.
SAILOR’s CAP - 8/5 – Post 8
In my opinion, Sailor’s Cap is a play against. I have to believe he benefited greatly from the soft turf and bad weather on June 21st, setting a BRIS figure 13-points higher than any previous effort.
If you throw-out his Colonial Turf victory, his resume is less spectacular. He does have a second-place finish is his only other graded stake try, but his two wins have come in an allowance race, which he only needed a figure of 78 to win, and his maiden victory.
Sure, Sailor’s Cap looks to be in form and is by no means a plodder, but at morning-line odds of 8/5, I’ll pass.
SOUTHWEST - 20/1 – Post 9
Southwest has an allowance win over the Colonial Downs turf course, but he only needed a speed figure of 83 to win that race. In his only race against graded stake company, he was over-matched and finished a distant 8th.
He should be the longest shot on the board and I would have to toss him from consideration for the Virginia Derby.
Tags: Baltimore Bob, Budge Man, Colonial Downs, Court Vision, El Sultry Sun, Gio Ponti, Horse Racing Handicapping, Old Man Buck, Sailor's Cap, Southwest, Virginia Derby, Your Round
