An interesting race has caught my attention at Belmont Thursday.
Race four on the Thursday card is a 5-furlong $52,000 maiden for 2-year-olds, which includes some top trainers and some of the top jockeys in the country. All nine entries are first-time starters.
I tend to like races featuring a large selection of first-time starters, because you can often get a big price on the eventual winner. In this case, the entire field is made-up of first-timers, which is very rare.
Todd Pletcher, Richard Violette, John Kimmel, Richard Dutrow and Kiaran McLaughlin all have interest in this race, and the jockeys include Garrett Gomez, Kent Desormeaux, John Velazquez, Edger Prado, Alan Garcia, Jorge Espinoza, Cornelio Velasquez and Edgar Coa.
I’d expect the favorite to be Todd Pletchers entry, ALLRIGHTSRESERVED, who is breaking from the rail. Pletcher is a 19% winner with first-time starters and in the money an outstanding 48% of the time. Gomez tops the statistics as a 17% winner with horses yet to demonstrate a preferred running-style.
Allrightsreserved is out of AWESOME AGAIN, sire of GHOSTZAPPER, GINGER PUNCH, and WILKO.
A horse I’ve been drawn to is SEAN AVERY, who will break from post four.
Allen Iwinski is 0 for 18 with first-time starters, which obviously isn’t good, but a sample size of 18 is comparably small. Iwinski is a proficient trainer in all other aspects. In 2008, Iwinski is a 15% winner and in the money 33% of the time.
The drop-off between most trainers first-time starter statistics and their recent record is generally negligible, so Iwinski is an exception. Either he is really bad with first-time starters, or due to the sample-size, he just hasn’t broken through yet. With a 22% in-the-money record, I’m going to go with the latter.
Getting past Iwinski’s record, there are a lot of other things to like about Sean Avery.
John Velazquez will be in the stirrups for Iwinski, and his 15% record with first-time starters offset some of my concerns with the trainer’s record.
Sean Avery has been working well. In May, he was sent 4-furlongs in what may have been a race simulation. He went :47 flat in that run and was fastest of 68 others. Allrightsreserved breezed the same distance that day and was 11 of 69, going 4-furlongs in :48.
Sean Avery is out of CHEROKEE RUN, who has sired WAR PASS and RECAPTURETHEGLORY, both of whom are forwardly placed style runners. Cherokee Run also sired ZANJERO and CHELOKEE.
Race four is also the kick-off to Thursday’s pick 6. If you are building a ticket, don’t leave Sean Avery out.
Tags: Allrightsreserved, Awesome Again, Belmont Park, Cherokee Run, First Time Starters, Horse Racing Handicapping, Sean Avery
July 3, 2008 at 11:16 am
Doesn’t Shrewd have some advantages? The dam’s stats are pretty nice, if I read it right. 2/3 winner for 2-year old starts, and 3 winners in 3 starts. Dutrow has a decent 1st-time starters record, too. And the horse has had some nice recent works.
That Pletcher horse does look pretty good. Sean Avery seems like a horse with a good pedigree who may not be with the right owner/trainer.
July 3, 2008 at 1:22 pm
Unfortunately, Sean Avery scratched today. Boooo!
July 28, 2008 at 9:21 pm
Allen Iwinski is 0 for 18 because his horses don’t belong in Belmont. He has lot of young horses and they just aren’t belmont types. Sean Avery just ran 3rd to Munnings a 1.7 million dollar purchase. Allen has been out of training for 3 years due to illness. Watch him in the future he will be back racing at that percentage.