Other Belmont Looks For Thursday, July 3rd

Belmont – Race 1

PELELIU is lightly raced compared to the majority of the field.  His main competition for the lead is ALL ABOUT to his direct inside.

All About has not raced well at Belmont and is coming off a bad effort at Big Sandy just two weeks ago.  Meanwhile, Peleliu has been on a break and comes into this race off a solid work just one week ago.  He had a similar work back in February right before he romped a $50,000 claiming field by seven lengths.

Peleliu is backed by Wesley Ward and John Velazquez will pilot.  I’ll take the 7/2 odds, assume Peleliu makes the lead, and wins going away.

Belmont – Race 2

Hard to not like MISS BODINE in this one.  When Bob Baffert ships a horse east and away from his home base, you tend to pay attention.

Miss Bodine is very well bred.  She is out of 2-year-old undefeated champion VINDICATION, who is out of SEATTLE SLEW.  Vindication has had a lot of success in his early stud career, with wins coming 20% of the time for his first-time starters.

Miss Bodine’s broodmare, GUILDED TIMES, has seven winners from eleven starters; three of which have been stake winners.

Miss Bodine has worked well at Santa Anita, has one work over the Belmont track, and I’ve always liked Baffert with young horses. She’ll be short-priced, but she looks like a winner.

Belmont – Race 3

I’ll take the potential lone speed in CALL TIGER.

A lightly raced three-year-old with room to improve has a shot at getting the lead here, and the gelding has never lost when he’s had it.

At morning-line odds of 8/1, this is a good opportunity to boost the pick 4 between races two and five.

Belmont – Race 4

As already stated, I like SEAN AVERY in this one.  I like the breeding, I like the works, I like the jockey, and I like the 6/1 price.  Plus it’s a great pick to kick-off the pick 6.

Belmont – Race 5

Barclay Tagg sends SWEETEST KISS out in this $35,000 claiming turf race, which is the same level she handled by three-lengths last time out.

She is capable of speed figures in the low 90’s, which is better than anyone else in the field.  Her closest competition will be trying turf for the first time, while Sweetest Kiss is coming off her best race over the same surface she’ll run on Thursday.

Edgar Coa has been lethal for Tagg, winning a third of all of his races with the trainer.  Sweetest Kiss will be the favorite, but sometimes you just can’t back anyone else in the field, and the favorites are the way to go.

Belmont – Race 8

I have to stay with the favorites in race 8, and go with POSITIVE PROSPECT.

The Belmont turf is playing to the closers and there is enough speed in the field for the race to unravel for Positive Prospect.

Her last outing was over the Belmont turf and she had a strong move late in the race to secure that win.  Here speed figures are consistently in the 80’s, and that should be enough to win this one.

HOPE STREET is a threat, but is trying turf for the first-time.  I expect DRESSED TO WIN to hang tough, but she is a bounce candidate, and the turf bias doesn’t play to her favor.

Summary

I’ll likely play the pick 4 between races two and five tomorrow.  That ticket will look like this:

$2.00 Pick 4 – Races 2 – 5
R2: #5 Miss Bodine
R3: #4 Call Tiger
R4: #4 Sean Avery
R5: #4 Sweetest Kiss

I’ll probably also throw some support at Peleliu in the first to see if I can get the day started on a positive note. 

If that goes well, I’ll play the pick 6, building a ticket around the horses I’ve identified in races 4, 5 and 8.

Then I’ll play Sean Avery in the fourth, and if that goes well, carry the momentum over into the fifth.  I think those two races are the best bets of the day.

We’ll see.

Tags: Belmont, Horse Racing Handicapping, Horse Racing Selections