ADRIANO, riding his fame from the Lanes End Stakes, looks to be the favorite for Saturday’s running of the grade 3 Colonial Turf Cup at Colonial Downs.
At 3/1 morning-line odds, Adriano is the lukewarm favorite. I expect those odds to hold, or even improve, as the public takes their shot at the tote board Saturday. Adriano might still go off as the betting favorite, but there are many other possible contenders in the field.
As mentioned before, Adriano was the winner of the 2008 Lanes End Stakes back in March, and that race was used as his final prep for the Kentucky Derby. He was great on the Turfway polytrack, winning by 2 1/2 lengths and setting a 101 Bloodstock Research Information Services (BRIS) speed figure.
But Adriano has been far from consistant and I’m not sure his recent performances or works dictate making him the favorite in this one. He could surprise me, but there is simply too much value in the rest of the field.
COURT VISION is the other ex-Derby horse entered in the Colonial Turf Cup this weekend, and he has been assigned morning-line odds of 9/2.
One of the things I look for when horses make their first start on turf is their late pace numbers, especially in past races which featured a lot of pace.
The 2008 Wood Memorial provides a perfect example. In the Wood, INNER LIGHT was entered as a rabbit to derail WAR PASS, and that created a blistering pace. The track was also reported to be deep that particular day.
This should have been the perfect scenario for Court Vision, but he still only managed to finish third, and War Pass still out-finished him. In my opinion, that performance was very disappointing and is reason enough to avoid supporting Court Vision at 9/2.
EL SULTRY SUN is three for five lifetime on turf. His speed figures are a bit low, but with only five career races, he could step forward. His works have been very good recently, and he might be primed for a big win Saturday. At 12/1, he seems like a bargain, but I don’t think those odds will hold.
YOUR ROUND hasn’t won since breaking his maiden eight races ago, but has hit the board three of the last four times. His speed figures are more in the sweet spot of where they need to be to win this race and he is returning to the turf for the first time in several races. At the very least, the exotics might be considered for Your Round.
SPORTING ART has a lot to like. He has two wins in his last three races, all of which have come on turf. He has three wins by a neck and another neck finish for second, which I think is a major positive going into this weekend, because without much pace to run at, there is a good shot of a blanket-style finish; so I like a horse that has shown some moxy in the past. At morning-line 5/1, he seems like a live play.
BALTIMORE BOB is too slow and is one I feel comfortable eliminating. He might end up being the pace-setter this Saturday, but I don’t view that as being a good thing.
NISTLE’s CRUNCH is a solid entry and could figure into the race somewhere. I personally prefer others, but it wouldn’t be the biggest surprise to see Nistle’s Crunch run well this weekend. He is also a possible pace-setter, which once again, I don’t think is a good thing.
Saturday will KENTUCKY BEAR’s first run on turf and he could improve. He’s had a couple of rough trips since breaking his maiden, and while I’d like to have seen him be more competitive in his recent races, he certainly has some talent.
Kentucky Bear is working well, and of the Triple Crown veterans, I actually prefer him over Adriano and Court Vision.
BOSS LAFITTE is yet another entry I wouldn’t be surprised to see run well this Saturday. Boss Lafitte has four career wins, including a grade 3, and his last win came in an impressive worst-to-first run. However, It should be noted that two of those wins came in races moved from turf-to-dirt due to weather.
Boss Lafitte is working well and provides a lot of value at 15/1.
And then finally we have SAILOR’s CAP, who is another possible pace-setter among this field and comes in with a short price at 7/2. Honestly, I’m not sure where the 7/2 valuation comes from and would expect that number to slip on Saturday.
Sailor’s Cap has two wins in six races, and recently ran well in the grade 3 American Turf at Churchill Downs, but his speed figures are ho-hum, he hasn’t raced in 50-days, and the outside post hurts a bit. At 7/2, I have to look elsewhere.
Free past performances for this race can be found here.
I’ll post a formal selection sometime tomorrow.
Tags: Adriano, Baltimore Bob, Boss Lafitte, Colonial Downs, Colonial Turf Cup, Court Vision, El Sultry Sun, Horse Racing Handicapping, Horse Racing Selections, Kentucky Bear, Nistle's Crunch, Sailor's Cap, Sporting Art, Your Round
