The Northern Dancer Stakes is an interesting race on the Churchill Downs card this afternoon, as three Kentucky Derby starters return to Kentucky for the first time.
The returnees include PYRO, RECAPTURETHEGLORY and VISIONAIRE.
Also in the field are TEXAS WILDCATTER, MYPALCHARLIE and UNBRIDLED VICAR, who all made appearances on the Triple Crown trail this season.
I personally believe this may be the last, or one of the last times we see Pyro.
Pyro was dominant earlier in the year and few can forget his Risen Star last-to-first performance back in February. Since then however, Pyro has been on a downward spiral.
He certainly isn’t a good bet at 7/5, but I’m guessing he’ll go off a bit higher than that; maybe 9/5.
Pyro is one of those rare closers who hasn’t been bothered by the lack of pace he has faced in the past, but I find it hard to believe that will continue to be the case, especially considering his worsening form over the past few months.
Some handicappers might throw out his Lexington Stakes because it was on polytrack, and others may forgive his Kentucky Derby run simply because of the field size and the overall race difficulty, but I sure wouldn’t be confidant of backing an overwhelming favorite coming off those two races.
It’s put-up or shut-up time for Pyro. If he loses against this group, he’ll likely ride off into the sunset. If he wins, we might see him a couple more times over the summer and into the fall, but I’m predicting another disappointment.
If I had to pick the winner, I would go with Recapturetheglory. I actually cashed my largest ticket of the year on Recapturetheglory in the Illinois Derby, where I was dumbfounded that his odds actually went up from the morning-line.
If I remember correctly, he went off at 15/1.
The Northern Dancer sets up very similar to the Illinois Derby. Recapturetheglory could very well get a wire trip on the rail, and that could spell doom for the rest of the field. But wagering on that happening at 15/1 and 3/1 are two completely different scenarios.
In fact, I actually believe Recapturetheglory will be bet down by post-time.
That hardly makes Recapturetheglory a shoe-in. There isn’t much of a drop-off in talent to the rest of the field, and picking any of the others over one-another is quite difficult.
If I had to bet it, I’d take Recapturetheglory for the win, but not a 3/1 or worse. It should be an interesting race to watch unfold though.
Tags: Churchill Downs Selections, Horse Racing Handicapping, Mypalcharlie, Northern Dancer Stakes, Pyro, Recapturetheglory, Texas Wildcatter, Unbridled Vicor, Visionaire
