CURLIN returns to action this week, making his 2008 North American debut in the grade I Stephen Foster Handicap.
It’s hard to mount an argument for Curlin not being the best horse in the world right now, and I’m certainly not going to attempt it. Curlin has won eight of 11 starts, including numerous grade I wins.
Over his career, Curlin has added the Preakness Stakes, the Breeders Cup Classic, the Jockey Gold Cup and the Dubai World Cup to his impressive resume; and is on the brink of becoming the highest earning horse in the sport’s history.
But the best do not always win.
Take for example this week’s US Open. Few would argue against Tiger Woods being the undisputed top golfer in the world, but he’s coming into the US Open off knee surgery, and regardless of what happens this weekend, he’ll still be considered the world’s best golfer even if he isn’t able to mount a challenge Sunday afternoon.
Ok, maybe that analogy isn’t perfect, because there certainly isn’t anything wrong with Curlin’s knees, and he also doesn’t have to face 120 competitors each time out. But the point I’m trying to make is after four straight victories, this might be the week Curlin fails, and I don’t believe he’ll take a hit to his overall greatness as a result.
Why might he fail? He doesn’t have anything wrong with his knees, but there are a few knocks to be found.
First, Curlin is giving 10 lbs. to his closest rival and 15 lbs. to nearly half the field. That’s a lot of weight to be giving to any field, and to add difficulty, Curlin is coming into the race from a long layoff compared to the rest of his competition. Not to mention, his last race occurred half-way across the world.
Curlin will also be breaking from the rail for the first-time in his career. I’m not too concerned about the rail, as it provides an opportunity for jockey Robby Albarado to save some ground; but it does increase the chance of him getting boxed in, as Albarado won’t be looking for the lead.
But let’s face it, no one is going to be surprised if Curlin’s class shines through and he comes barreling down the stretch late in the race to record his fifth grade I victory. Just like no one is going to be surprised if Tiger Woods overcomes all and takes home another US Open trophy on Sunday.
However, at 3/5 morning-line odds, it’s hard to support Curlin’s cause, especially considering the layoff. I actually doubt he’ll go off at odds that low, but we’ll see what the public thinks Saturday afternoon.
Looking at the rest of the field, I’m going to quickly toss DELIGHTFUL KISS. The victories in the Iowa Derby and Ohio Derby last year are nice, but since then, Delightful Kiss as regressed. He finished second last time out in the Blazing Sword Stakes, and will be coming from off the pace. The odds of him out-finishing Curlin are slim, and 20/1 morning-line odds are supportive of that belief.
I’ve never been a SAM P. supporter. I’ve always thought he was too slow to be competitive at the higher ranks, and though he clearly out-classed an allowance field last time out by winning uncharacteristically on the lead, I doubt he will return to that running-style this week, or his winning ways.
EINSTEIN is one of the classier horses in the race, and has won three of his last five starts. However, the majority of those races have occurred on turf, and in his last dirt race, he failed to close into honest fractions. Einstein is working well and he did win his maiden race on dirt, so it wouldn’t be too surprising to see him run big this Saturday.
GRASSHOPPER is probably the most likely second-choice, but has a habbit of finishing runner-up. He’s also coming off his worst career start, where he failed as the favorite. Albarado, his regular rider, is committed to Curlin, so Garrett Gomez gets the mount on Grasshopper.
HIGH BLUES seems out-classed in this field. He’s won a couple lower tier races and tends to finish in the money, but has been running exclusively on synthetic surfaces. I generally do not treat poly-to-dirt as a positive wagering angle, and thus, will stay away from High Blues as well.
RED ROCK CREEK is an older horse with a strong late turn of foot who could figure into the exotic wagers. His last start was on turf, which could be a positive, but he hasn’t worked particularly fast this past week at Churchill Downs.
Red Rock Creek has a habit of starting slow. In fact, he has started last or next-to-last in his last six starts. He could threaten late in the race though, and might be a good exotic play.
JONESBORO won the grade 3 Razorback Handicap in March on the lead as the favorite, but failed to make the lead in several other starts, doing poorly in most. He’ll be breaking from an outside post, and has speed to his outside. I’m not sure he’ll figure into the pace scenario, which is where he needs to be to compete.
BARCOLA won his last race setting the pace, and is the most logical pace-setter this Saturday. The outside post hurts, but if he can get clear, he could be dangerous. Having a race under him since his debacle in Dubai is reassuring, and I might be willing to give him some support at 20/1. Of all the horses, I believe the lack of weight carried by Barcola might help the most.
BRASS HAT performed well at Churchill Downs last fall, finishing second in the grade 2 Clark Handicap, but has yet to come into form in 2008. The gelding has faced stiff competition throughout the year, but winning might be asking a lot.
Brass Hat is the only other grade I winner in the field other than Curlin, and I expect the the public to give Brass Hat some support based on his class and his win over the Churchill Downs surface. I’ll likely stay away though, as I see concerns surrounding his current form.
Tags: Barcola, Brass Hat, Curlin, Delightful Kiss, Einstein, High Blues, Horse Racing Handicapping, Jonesboro, Red Rock Creek, Sam P., Stephen Foster 2008, Stephen Foster Handicap
