There are a number of theories circulating on why BIG BROWN failed to win this past Saturday’s Belmont Stakes. Many of these theories are laughable and I’m surprised by the sources of quite a few.
Some people are pointing to Big Brown’s health as a possible reason for his failure, which doesn’t appear to be true, as he came out of the race with a clean bill of health from the veterinarian.
Others are saying his missed training time over the past five-weeks due to weather and a quarter-crack injury are to blame; in other words, he wasn’t fit enough.
A smaller sect are saying the lack of steroids administered in May are the explanation for his poor run. And even a few people believe it was bad karma that finally caught of with the 3-year-old colt or possibly the 93-degree heat.
I disagree with them all.
In my opinion, it’s plan-and-simple why Big Brown lost.
1) He was boxed in for the first-time in his career.
2) He wanted to run and his jockey held him back.
3) He was hung impossibly wide around both Belmont turns.
Unfortunately, most of this I feel can be blamed on jockey Kent Desormeaux, who appeared to ride in the Belmont like he was afraid to lose.
Breaking from the rail, Desormeaux should have had the inside track to the lead had he wanted it, which is where I think he should have been. Big Brown is quite comfortable out front and the lead would have been to his advantage.
Instead, Desormeaux allowed himself to be boxed in, and Big Brown had to be checked-up for the first time in his career.
In most cases, especially for a horse with a lot of early speed, being checked-up is usually enough to entice them to quit. It says something about Big Brown’s class that he continued to run. Personally, I thought his race was over after the first quarter.
Big Brown obviously didn’t like his position, and became rank after nearly running over DA’TARA and TALE OF EKATI. To avoid dismal failure, Desormeaux took Big Brown wide, where he again had a chance to take over the race, but Desormeaux chose to restrain Big Brown from running.
Da’Tara set mediocre fractions early, going a half in :48.3, but Desormeaux was determined to sit third. This ended up being a huge mistake, as Da’Tara is not a very fast horse for a front-runner, but if left alone, can be quite difficult to run down late in the race.
Not only that, but at this point in the race, Big Brown was being forced to run further than any of his rivals because he was tracking the leaders from way off the rail. In fact, down the back-stretch, he appeared to be running in the middle of the track.
Desormeaux didn’t improve his position going into the far turn, and thus, when Big Brown was finally given permission to run, he was completely out of gas, as would any horse have been, regardless of their fitness.
Truly, he received an abysmal trip.
This is why Big Brown lost. Not because of the weather. Not because of his health or fitness. Not because he missed a treatment of steroids. Not because there was anything wrong.
Big Brown lost because horses simply do not win under the circumstances I’ve just described.
The ride Desormeaux orchestrated was the equivilant to spotting the entire field a 20-length head-start. Big Brown is good, he’s not that good.
Tags: 2008 Belmont, Belmont Stakes, Big Brown, Da'Tara, Horse Racing Handicapping, Tale of Ekati
June 8, 2008 at 11:46 pm
You are right on with your analysis. Here is what I wrote yesterday, a few hours after the race. Unfortunately, the sports media is afraid to tell it like it is. Desormeaux lost the race.
Big Brown to his fans: “It wasn’t my fault!”
It is reported that as the groom was walking Big Brown around the barn after the Belmont Stakes, each time they approached Trainer Rick Dutrow, who was hanging his head dejectedly on the paddock fence, the horse suddenly stopped and stared at him as if to say, “What just happened dude?” The fourth time circling around, Dutrow could no longer ignore the colt. “Hi Buddy,” he said. Big Brown snorted and walked away.
Shortly before this, an TV reporter was trying to get a few words from Dutrow. But his back was all you could see. Each time Big Brown saw the television cameras, he stopped and raised his head as if to say: “When are you reporters going to interview my connections and take my picture.” After all, this was what had happened after each race for the previously unbeaten colt.
But the gates were locked. And nobody was talking. Except for Big Brown. But no one was listening to him. He’s just a horse, after all.
Good horsemen know that horses rely on their riders to keep them out of trouble. If you protect them, they will perform for you. If you get them in trouble, they won’t trust you. If they don’t trust you, they won’t listen to you. And that’s what happened at the Belmont Stakes.
After Kent Desormeaux ran his horse up into Da Tara’s hindquarters, jerked on Big Brown’s mouth, fidgeted nervously on the horse’s back, and then clumsily reined into another horse as he maneuvered to the outside, the race was over. By this time, Big Brown was already at the five-eighths pole, which is where he left his confidence.
The rest of the race consisted of Desormeaux letting his horse get pushed six lanes wide from the rail, adding unnecessary distance to an already energy-sapping race.
Maybe they’ll find something wrong with Big Brown’s health, but I doubt it. I think Big Brown was saying to his connections: “Good going guys. I would have done better with Edgar on my back.” (The suits at IEAH had second-guessed Dutrow by replacing Edgar Prado with Kent Desormeaux prior to the run at the Triple Crown.)
I hope they continue to run Big Brown so he can redeem himself. He is a champion. And he deserves a better legacy than being known as the only winner of the Kentucky Derby and Preakness to come in last in the Belmont.
“Really. It wasn’t my fault!”
June 9, 2008 at 9:02 am
Obviously I agree with you Dave. Big Brown’s connections sent a lot of mixed signals this past week. They were so afraid of losing, they forgot how to win.
I think Big Brown was primed and should have won, but that horrible ride was just too much for him to overcome. You have to believe he must have been perplexed about not being able to do his thing.