Why is the Belmont so difficult to win?
Is it the added distance? Is it the quirky track, known as ‘big sandy’? Is it because the other rivals change their strategy to make it more difficult? Is it the grueling three races in five-weeks? Is it the addition of fresh new rivals?
It’s probably a bit of all-of-the-above.
Regardless of the reasons, the Belmont has proven to be a tough test for other potential Triple Crown winners, and this has become very obvious in recent years.
In 1997, SILVER CHARM took his shot, but came up 3/4 of a length short to TOUCH GOLD. The next year, REAL QUIET came the closest of any, losing in a photo finish to VICTORY GALLOP. In 1999, CHARISMATIC would become the third horse in as many years to go to the Belmont post with a chance at history, and would also fail.
In the new century, things didn’t change. WAR EMBLEM tried in 2002, but his race was over the moment the gates opened. In 2003, FUNNY CIDE was rail-roaded by a fresh EMPIRE MAKER. And in 2004, SMARTY JONES, the horse many thought as dominant as any, also came up short, being nipped at the wire by BIRDSTONE.
On paper, video and in-person, Big Brown appears as dominant as any of those I’ve listed above. Some may argue the competition was better in recent years and others may argue he isn’t as talented as those who failed.
Those arguments are probably valid, but regardless, Big Brown has dominated all he has faced.
But as dominant as Big Brown has been, we have seen this kind of dominance before, and it’s hard to ignore those past failures. Will Big Brown buck the trend and gallop into history or will he also fail like others before him?
There are some concerns surrounding Big Brown. He ran down on his back heals at Pimlico three-weeks ago and he recently had a well published quarter-crack injury. Even though his performances visually have been stunning, the speed figures are a bit lower than what you would expect for wins by such wide margins.
But Big Brown isn’t the type of horse who will beat himself. If his competition is not going to push him, it is going to be very difficult to go against him.
Big Brown has already proven he can beat the likes of ANAK NAKAL, DENIS OF CORK and TALE OF EKATI. In fact, it wasn’t even close. He has also already beaten ICABAD CRANE and MACHO AGAIN by daylight. Of the other new rivals, CASINO DRIVE appears to be the only horse who might be equal in talent.
Casino Drive is the half-brother of JAZIL and half-sister of RAGS FOR RICHES, who are the last two winners of the Belmont. The ease in which Casino Drive won the Peter Pan Stakes and the Bloodstock Research Information Services (BRIS) speed figure of 109 show he has talent.
Is that talent enough to upset the undefeated Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner? Maybe, but there are new concerns.
Casino Drive has been diagnosed with a possible stone bruise on his back left hoof, which could cause him to miss the Belmont Stakes. The bruise is reported to be minor, but it was discovered visually. Apparently Casino Drive was seen picking up his injured hoof further than his other hoof, which I see as a very bad sign.
It’s one thing for a horse to have a minor injury and not visually show signs of discomfort. Quite another to favor it.
Earlier this morning I was leaning toward Casino Drive. I was expecting to bet Casino Drive win, place and show, figuring he had a good shot to win, and even if he didn’t, he was quite a bit better than the rest of the field.
However, with the injury, I have to reconsider.
Truth be told, at this point, I’m about 80% sure Big Brown wins the Belmont Stakes and enters the ranks of some of the best horses in history. But at odds of 1/5, which is what I expect at post-time, it’s hard to profit, even through exotic wagers. And given the history of the Belmont Stakes, I’m wary of keying all my wagers around Big Brown.
For the second race in a row, I’m probably going to take the safe way out, and look for a potential ’show’ horse. It’s far from exciting, and it’s much more prestigious to tell someone you selected the winner, but I’m in this game to profit where others tend to be greedy.
So yet again, I’ll swallow my pride, and go to the window with a single show wager.
Considering the circumstances, a show wager is a safer bet, and if by some chance, Big Brown and Casino Drive (if he isn’t scratched) don’t finish in the money, the show pool is going to pay very well. Maybe even better than the win pool.
I don’t have my official selection yet, but I’m hoping to have something up later tonight.
Tags: Anak Nakal, Belmont Stakes, Birdstone, Casino Drive, Charismatic, Denis of Cork, Empire Maker, Funny Cide, Horse Racing Handicapping, Icabad Crane, Jazil, Macho Again, Rags for Riches, Real Quiet, Silver Charm, Smarty Jones, Tale of Ekati, Touch Gold, Triple Crown, Victory Gallop, War Emblem
