As the Belmont Stakes field starts to come into focus, BIG BROWN is looking a lot like Triple Crown royalty.
Not to knock the rest of the field, which includes some horses with a lot of potential, but as of right now, it doesn’t appear any of the other horses expected to run next Saturday are in position to compromise Big Brown’s chances.
At one time it looked like Big Brown might be a one-dimensional horse, as the majority of his races were run in wire-to-wire winning fashion leading up to the Kentucky Derby.
In the Kentucky Derby itself, Big Brown was hung out wide, and even though he didn’t win wire-to-wire, he received an amazingly clean trip from his outside post-position. Questions still circled around whether or not that clean trip was evidence enough Big Brown could handle a stalkers role.
The Preakness was finally an opportunity for Big Brown to be tested, and tested he was by GAYEGO and RILEY TUCKER, who set honest fractions while Big Brown was forced to take back. Big Brown again prevailed, taking over at the top of the stretch and winning decisively.
However, as we track toward the Belmont, it appears the pace scenario for the Belmont Stakes is returning to Big Brown’s wheel house. Let’s assume all of the current potential starters are entered as expected next week.
The connections for BEHINDATTHEBAR, CASINO DRIVE, DENIS OF CORK and TALE OF EKATI are no doubt envisioning a Belmont Stakes upset in their minds. As such, it is highly unlikely the connections for either of these contenders are willing to sacrifice their chances by running with Big Brown early.
The majority of the rest of the field are deep closers. ANAK NAKAL, ICABAD CRANE, MACHO AGAIN, READY’s ECHO and TOMCITO will all be looking for running room late if they all make the field.
This leaves SPARK CANDLE as the lone challenger to Big Brown early, and I have my doubts on whether or not Spark Candle has enough to derail the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes champion.
If Spark Candle were to go to the lead, Big Brown has shown enough versatility to stalk a lone pace-setter. It would not be a lot to ask of Big Brown to sit in second, and take control of the race when the opportunity was presented.
If Spark Candle does not go to the lead, that would leave Big Brown as the lone speed in the race, and he has proven this is his preferred style. If anything, he would likely flourish by returning to wire-to-wire running ways.
Assuming no one bursts onto the scene in the next week or so to significantly change things, an upset appears unlikely. The only other option is for someone else in the field to step-up and win by out running Big Brown through their own talent.
Can Casino Drive or Behindatthebar take down Big Brown in their first meeting with the undefeated colt? Possibly, but I sure would feel a lot more confident if I didn’t foresee such a good trip unfolding for Big Brown.
Under those circumstances, you have to side with the champion, who appears poised to romp home once again.
Tags: Anak Nakal, Behindatthebar, Belmont Stakes, Big Brown, Casino Drive, Denis of Cork, Gayego, Horse Racing Handicapping, Icabad Crane, Macho Again, Ready's Echo, Riley Tucker, Spark Candle, Tale of Ekati, Tomcito
