Preakness Analysis

Even though I’m not going to try to beat him, I believe BIG BROWN is vulnerable this weekend.  Here are my concerns:

1) Big Brown hasn’t worked since the Kentucky Derby.  In fact, he has had little more than a couple of light gallops due to bad weather at Churchill Downs.

2) Big Brown’s Kentucky Derby effort was huge.  He was hung outside the entire race, but still managed to run farther and faster than the rest of the field, by a wide margin.  I have no doubt he will regress from that effort, but the question is, how much?

3) Despite running in sixth-place at first call in the Derby and being some 4-5 lengths off the pace early, Big Brown has still yet to face an inside trip, and has yet to have dirt kicked toward him while running under racing conditions.  Big Brown proponents will argue the Derby was proof he can rate, I disagree.

4) Richard Dutrow is not sounding near as confident about Big Brown’s run in the Preakness as he was about the Kentucky Derby.  With the stud rights deal falling through, I believe there is a lot of pressure on Dutrow, and I believe he is concerned about returning to the track after only two-weeks, especially without a work.  Dutrow is a figures guy, and I’m sure he is concerned about a regression as well.

But with all those negatives, it’s hard to knock Big Brown’s class. He is without a doubt, the most talented horse in the field. 

It will be very interesting to see how Kent Desormeaux chooses to ride Saturday.  I personally believe his best option is to go for the lead himself, and try to establish an outside stalking position next to TRES BORRACHOS.  This would be the best opportunity for Big Brown to win on his talent alone.

On the flip side, I would be very concerned about allowing GIANT MOON and GAYEGO the opportunity to get out in front and push Big Brown inside where he has never been asked to run before.  Regardless of talent, horses who have won wire-to-wire on multiple occasions do not react well the first time they are asked to rate inside.  If this were to happen, I don’t think it is unlikely at all for Big Brown to run out-of-the-money.

If you read my post regarding show wagers earlier this week, you understand my logic for betting this year’s Preakness. I’m not going to try and predict Desormeaux’s ride, so therefore, I’m not willing to back another horse in the field for the win.

If Desormeaux takes Big Brown to the front, I do believe he will be talented enough to outrun the field, regardless of any regression from his big Derby effort.  However, I do believe there is a realistic chance for Big Brown to fail Saturday if he is forced to run in a stalking position on the inside of the track.

For these reasons, I believe a show wager is the best option.  If Big Brown wins, so be it.  If Big Brown fails, I believe the show pool will pay quite nicely this weekend.

So who is the best horse to select?

Regardless of how Desormeaux chooses to ride Saturday, the pace should be quite honest.  I really like how some of the potential early speed horses are training up to the race, and if I had to put a number on it, I would expect :22 2/5 and :46 for the first fractions. 

Other than Big Brown (if he is a pace setter), I don’t believe any of the other early speed horses will survive the mile 3/16 trip.  So I’m throwing out Tres Borrachos and Giant Moon.  I’m also going to throw out Gayego, as the outside post will simply be too much to overcome at Pimlico.  The 12th post may seem better than the 19th post a Churchill Downs, but I’m not so sure.  It very well could be worse.

The same is true for HEY BYRN.  He is even further out than Gayego, and though Hey Byrn has some ability to play catch-up, I believe he’ll be shuffled back farther than he can recover from.

RILEY TUCKER seems over-matched.  I doubt he will improve from his last start on polytrack, which also happens to have been his best speed figure performance.  He hasn’t won since his maiden run in July 2007, and his dirt figures are consistently lower than where they need to be.  He probably wouldn’t win some of the undercard 3-year-old races earlier in the day.

STEVIL seems just as mediocre, and like Riley Tucker, recorded his best speed figure in a losing effort on polytrack last time out.  Stevil has also failed to record a win since his maiden debut in October 2007.

BEHINDATTHEBAR was scratched Friday, so we don’t need to account for him.

Considering I’m betting for show, I’m now left with six potential horses who I believe can finish in the top-3.

Further narrowing the field, I’m going to toss MACHO AGAIN.  He’s never been more than a mile, and he seems to have peaked in the Derby Trial.  Furthermore, his work on May 10th was less than stellar, showing signs of a regression.  The rail is quite favorable at Pimlico, but I doubt Macho Again will capitalize on that post without much early speed.

RACECAR RHAPSODY has some intrigue about him.  He could improve in his third start from a layoff, but most of his races have occurred on polytrack.  When he was on the dirt, he didn’t show signs of brilliance, and with only one career win, I’m having problem supporting him.

At this point, I’m very perplexed on how to deal with ICABAD CRANE, YANKEE BRAVO and KENTUCKY BEAR.  Theoretically, if Big Brown runs poorly, all three could run in the money, but I would feel more confident about eliminating at least one of them.

I would not be surprised at all if Yankee Bravo made a strong showing Saturday.  His best figure was posted over dirt, for which he has only run one time.  His late pace numbers leave me to believe he’ll be coming on strong late in Saturday’s race, which fits well into the Preakness pace scenario.  I’m a little concerned by him shipping in from California, and I’m also a bit concerned all of his works have been over Hollywood Park’s surface.

But coming in from a slight layoff, he should be fresh, and I would not be surprised for him to show some improvement returning to dirt.

I also like Kentucky Bear, who has been working well up to the Preakenss, and is coming in from the Blue Grass Stakes.

Paraphrasing from a chat transcript on bloodhorse.com, Bob Baffert recently said polytrack often makes bad horses look good and good horses look average.  I agree with Baffert’s views on polytrack, in more ways than one, so I’m going to assume the polytrack masked some of Kentucky Bear’s talent.  Talent he demonstrated in his maiden victory, setting a triple-digit speed figure, a feat not accomplished by many in the Preakness field.

There are some knocks on Kentucky Bear though.  In order to consider him, you have to be willing to toss his Fountain of Youth run, in which he encountered trouble, and if you believe his trainer, he had some other issues.

I’m also a bit concerned he is a forwardly placed pressing horse, which may not be to his advantage.  So lightly raced, its hard to confirm he has the closing kick to come from behind, and too close to the pace, and he might not have enough to finish.

There are some other positives.  His Ragozin numbers suggest he might be sitting on a big effort, and his pedigree profile fits well into the Preakness,  but I’m hesitantly talking myself out of backing him.

The horse I’m really coming around to may be a big surprise.

I really like Icabad Crane.  I believe he is the one horse I’m most hesitant to toss based on several factors. 

Even though he finished third in the Rushaway 100k, it was over polytrack, and as I’ve already mentioned, I believe polytrack has an ability to mask the talent of some horses.

Eliminating the Rushaway leaves Icabad Crane with an impressive undefeated resume, including three wins, his last being at Pimlico going 1 mile and an 1/8th from the same post position he’ll be breaking from Saturday.

I also feel Icabad Crane has room to improve.  He has only raced four times, and the speed figures he set in his last race were equal to the figures he set prior to the Rushaway, so I don’t believe he has made his big leap forward yet.

I’m also a big supporter of horses who know how to win.  Three wins in four races show me this horse knows how to find the wire, and getting 30/1 for a horse that is undefeated on dirt is a real positive.

The colt is also out of the sire JUMP START who is the son of A.P. INDY, another positive, and his distance profile fits very well into the Preakness.

Normally I would wager on Icabad Crane to win based on this analysis, but given all the other variables I’ve already covered, I believe the more favorable wager is for him to show.  This way, if Big Brown does show up, I still have a very good chance to profit, and if Big Brown fails, I believe I have an even better opportunity.

So my final verdict is Icabad Crane to show in this weekend’s Preakness Stakes.  I’ll post my official selection in another post.

Tags: A.P. INDY, Behindatthebar, Big Brown, Gayego, Giant Moon, Hey Byrn, Horse Racing Handicapping, Icabad Crane, Jump Start, Kentucky Bear, Macho Again, Preakness Selections, Preakness Stakes, Racecar Rhapsody, Riley Tucker, Stevil, Tres Borrachos, Yankee Bravo