How Far Can Gayego Run?

GAYEGO has everything you’d want to see in a Derby hopeful. A great foundation, consistent performances, seems to be getting better with every start, seems to have some versatility to his running-style, etc.

He also rates well on the majority of the key angles I look at before the Kentucky Derby, all of which have some sort of statistical history to support there use as a measurement:

• A one win at the age of two: CHECK
• At least three races since January 1st: CHECK
• At least one 1 1/8th mile prep: CHECK
• At least five lifetime starts: CHECK
• At least one graded stake win: CHECK
• At least one triple-digit speed figure: CHECK
• Won, or finished well in last prep race: CHECK

But when it comes to pedigree, some issues start to appear.

Chef-de-Race specializes in this sort of analysis.  By visiting Chef-de-Race, you can find out all sorts of different angles regarding a horse’s bloodlines and how they may impact their propensity for performing better at sprints vs. routes and vice-versa.

I’ve never been much of a pedigree guru, preferring to use pace and speed statistics, and the overall pace scenario to determine how well a horse might run on any given day.

However, the Kentucky Derby is a unique race with all sorts of statistical information available to help predict a possible winner, so usually I’ll take a look at DI to make sure my horse also fits the right profile.

For that reason, I like to look at the Dosage Index (DI) for each of the contenders, which is a great roll-up of how much speed / stamina prior generations have contributed to each horse.  I won’t go into too much detail, because you can find all the information you would ever need at the chef-de-race website.

Maybe to a fault, I don’t get into the whole Raise a Native (RAN) curse angle, or the lack of winners produced by Northern Dancer angle, or all the speed / stamina on the broodmare’s uncle’s, cousin’s, brother’s three-times inbred sire line pedigree.  I just want to see a snapshot of whether they can run or not, and if so, how far.

Generally speaking, the lower the DI the farther they like to run, and the higher the DI, the more apt they are to be better sprinters.

Since 1940, only seven winners of 67 have had a DI of 4.00 or higher, and only four of those were actually over the magical 4.00 score.  However, in the last ten years, REAL QUIET [1998] won with a 5.29 DI, CHARISMATIC [1999] won with a 5.22 DI, and GIACOMO [2005] won with a 4.33 DI.

An argument can be made the trend is starting to falter, but overall, the winner of the Kentucky Derby has still won with an average DI of 2.22.

This brings me back to Gayego, who comes in at a cool 4.33, tied for the highest DI among this year’s contenders.  (ANAK NAKAL: 4.00, BOB BLACK JACK 4.33, and SALUTE THE SAREGE 4.14 are the others)

But this is where I start to have issues with the DI numbers issued by chef-de-race.

A trend is only as good as the number of times it has defended itself.  There is realistic chance that Gayego and Anak Nakal will be the only two starters in the Kentucky Derby going against the trend.  So already, the trend as a 90% chance of remaining whole in 2008, assuming a field of 20 is entered.

Looking at the 2007 contenders, DOMINICAN and CURLIN were the only two starters with a DI of 4.00 or more.  The trend held true, as Street Sense was the eventual winner, but all things being equal, the trend had a 90% chance of staying true that year as well.

As for Curlin, he was named Horse of the Year in 2007, has won four grade one stake races, including the Preakness, Breader’s Cup Classic (against older horses) and the Dubai World Cup.  I think it is safe to say, Curlin does not have distance issues.

Then there is the common sense angle.  If people did not out-grow their parents, then we wouldn’t have freaks of nature like Shaquil O’Neal or Yao Ming.  Or compared to horses, we wouldn’t have freakish athletes like Secratariat.

Simply put, sometimes offspring exceed the ability of their parents.

Also, it’s not like Gayego doesn’t have some stamina producing ancestors.  I’ve been told (don’t assume I did this work, because this is way beyond me) Gayego dam was inbred 4×4 to Ribot and 5×5 to Alibhai.  I don’t know what that means other than Ribot and Alibhai are both significant influencers, so assuming stanima can skip a generation, Gayego may have gotten some through his grand parents.

Taking a look at the bigger picture, given that Gayego has so many other positives going for him, I think it would be unwise to eliminate him from contention simply based on his pedegree.  So far in his three-year-old campaign, Gayego has remained consistant at all distances, and it can be argued that his most recent performance at 1 mile and 1/8th was his best yet.

Can he leap forward again and capture the Kentucky Derby? It might be too easy to call that, but he is certainly one of the better contenders. 

Tags: Anak Nakal, Bob Black Jack, Chef-de-Race, Curlin, Dosage Index, Gayego, Horse Handicapping, Horse Racing, Kentucky Derby, Salute the Sarge