How good is COLONEL JOHN?
That’s a hard question to answer considering Santa Anita is running on its new cushion track, and most handicappers are finding it quite hard to judge the efforts of the horses out west with only a few months worth of data to pull from.
According to Bloodstock Research Information Services (BRIS), Colonel John earned a 90 BRIS speed-figure for his Sham Stakes win and a 98 for his win in the Santa Anita Derby.
Not too bad, but not what you would expect for a potential Kentucky Derby contender, especially one who is being talked of as the second-choice favorite to BIG BROWN.
But Colonel John has yet to test traditional dirt, so it’s hard to say how well he might do over the Churchill Downs surface. Or is it?
SIERRA SUNSET was the first west coast invader to try the dirt when he ran in the G2 Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park. In one previous race at Santa Anita, he received an 88 BRIS speed-figure, but when he ran in the Rebel, he won by setting a much more impressive 103. That’s a variance of 15-points!
GAYEGO was next, as his connections decided to run in the G2 Arkansas Derby, also at Oaklawn Park. In three prior races at Santa Anita, Gayego had scored one win and two second-place finishes, averaging a BRIS speed-figure of 94.6. He went on to win the Arkansas Derby and received a 101 BRIS speed-figure.
Then, last week, BEHINDTHEBAR made his run at the Coolmore Lexington Stakes. In three prior races at Santa Anita, BehindtheBar scored two wins and one second-place finish, averaging a BRIS speed figure of 89.6. BehindtheBar won the Lexington Stakes with a career best BRIS speed-figure of 99.
All three west coast invaders won!
Here is how it looks in chart form:
| Horse | SA Races | SA Record | BRIS Avg. | Non-SA BRIS | Variance | Last Race |
| BehindtheBar | 3 | 3-2-0 | 89.6 | 99 | 9.4 | Won Lex |
| Gayego | 3 | 1-2-0 | 94.6 | 101 | 6.4 | Won Ark |
| Sierra Sunset | 1 | 0-0-0 | 88 | 103 | 15 | Won Rebel |
Taking the average variance between the Santa Anita speed-figures and comparing them to the first try on dirt, you get a variance of roughly 9-points. Add those points to Colonel John’s last two stake wins, and his speed-figures would look more like 99 for the Sham Stakes and 107 for the Santa Anita Derby. Quite a bit better than it currently looks on paper.
And that’s without mention of BOB BLACK JACK, who also figures to run in the Kentucky Derby, and could be a major influence on the pace scenario for the race. Looking over Bob Black Jack’s resume, he averaged a speed-figure of 96.3 for three races, and if you figure in his freakish world record romp last year, it is much higher.
Add 9-points to Bob Black Jack’s average, and you get a non-Santa Anita BRIS speed figure in the neighborhood of 105.
Be wary of the California horses on May 3rd. I think they are a lot better than they appear in black-and-white.
Tags: Behindthebar, Big Brown, Bob Black Jack, Colonel John, Coolmore Lexington Stakes, Cushion Track, Geyego, Handicapping, Horse Racing, Kentucky Derby, Rebel Stakes, Santa Anita, Santa Anita Derby, Sham Stakes, Sierra Sunset
