Despite my comments recently on the Florida Derby, I believe the race should still be considered among the top-3 preps this season.
Even if we adjust the splits just slightly, the race BIG BROWN ran that day was no doubt a big effort, and I see no reason to discredit the speed figures given by the Daily Racing Form (DRF) or Bloodstock Research Information Systems (BRIS).
Big Brown received a 106 Beyer and a 110 BRIS figure, and those figures are the highest of any of the other prep race this year.
So why play against him?
For one reason, the Kentucky Derby is the most competitive race of the year, and traditionally, the Derby offers a lot of betting value due to the deep vat of talent that will go to the post May 3rd.
Big Brown will likely face two other grade-one stake winners when he faces COLONEL JOHN and MONBA on the first weekend in May. He is also expected to face ADRIANO, COOL COAL MAN, GAYEGO, PYRO, RECAPTURETHEGLORY, and TALE OF EKATI, all of which are grade-two stake winners. In addition to those, a sprinkle of grade-three winners, and possibly one or both graded stake champion fillies, EIGHT BELLES and PROUD SPELL, will also enter.
Even if you feel this year’s group of three-year-olds is a slightly lower caliber than previous years, listing out the field should put into perspective just how talented this year’s Derby might be from a credentials stand-point.
So far, the most talented competition Big Brown has faced has been HEY BYRN, winner of the Holy Bull Stakes, in which he defeated a number of allowance level rivals, Peruvian champion TOMCITO, who failed miserably in the Coolmore Lexington Stakes, grade-two stake winner SMOOTH AIR, and graded stake winner MAJESTIC WARRIOR, who is off the Kentucky Derby trail after several poor performances.
In only three career starts, I would say that Big Brown, despite his undefeated record and a grade-one trophy, is much more untested than it may appear.
Not only has Big Brown been lightly tested by competition, his running-style has also never been threatened. In each of the first three starts for Big Brown, he as run to the lead, cleared the field, and won by daylight.
The Kentucky Derby is expected to be different.
Even with the defection of WAR PASS, Big Brown should be engaged on the lead, or forced to take back for the first time in his career. The competition on the front could come from Recapturetheglory, Gayego, BOB BLACK JACK or possibly another outside entry, like MASSIVE DRAMA.
Can Big Brown still clear the field and gain the lead himself? Maybe, but at what cost? The connections to Recapturetheglory have already stated their intention to go to the front regardless of who else might go with them, because it is their best opportunity to win.
In my opinion, in order to gain the lead out-right, Big Brown will have to run fractions south of :23, :46 in the first stage of the race. Fractions that fast would likely eclipse SPEND A BUCK’S wire-to-wire Kentucky Derby victory posted in 1985. No other horse in the more than 130-year history of the Kentucky Derby has run that fast, that early, and held on to win.
The other option is to take back and attempt to rate for the first time, trusting a horse with only three lifetime starts to not be spooked by a sudden change in strategy.
All trainers generally take a shot at rating a speed horse at sometime in their career. I’m just not so sure that the Kentucky Derby is the best time to adjust a horse’s running-style.
Still not convinced Big Brown is vulnerable?
Expanding further on Big Brown’s lack of experience, he has only raced twice this year, and will also be coming in the Kentucky Derby from the longest layoff of all the other final prep races. The Florida Derby was run in April, and by the time the Derby is run in May, Big Brown will have been away from the track for more than a month.
Understanding that his fitness can be kept up by regular work-outs, Big Brown will still be attempting to go farther than he has ever gone before, against the stiffest competition he has ever faced, without having run a race in more than a month.
Now, does any of this mean that Big Brown cannot win the Kentucky Derby? Not at all. Big Brown could prove he is a very special horse and buck all of these negatives to win the 2008 Kentucky Derby.
But typically, if you are going to back a Derby favorite, and are only expected to get 3/1 for every dollar you risk, I would think you’d want to be much more confident than Big Brown’s resume would suggest.
In the last 133 runnings of the Kentucky Derby, 50 favorites, or approximately 38% of favored horses have crossed the wire first. Of the others, 28 ran second, 11 were third, and 44 unplaced. – Esther Marr – 2007 BloodHorse.com
They all looked like winners before the gates opened though.
Tags: Adriano, Big Brown, Bob Black Jack, Colonel John, Cool Coal Man, Eight Belles, Gayego, Handicapping, Hey Byrn, Horse Racing, Kentucky Derby, Majestic Warrior, Massive Drama, Monba, Proud Spell, Pyro, Recapturetheglory, Smooth Air, Spend A Buck, Tale of Kkati, Tomcito, War Pass
