With Kentucky Oaks / Derby week fast approaching, I have a lot to cover as far as the spring prep season is concerned.
I’d like to start with the Florida Derby, which is the race most feel the morning-line Kentucky Derby favorite is going to come from; and that favorite would be no other than BIG BROWN.
But without getting into the merits of Big Brown yet, first I’d like to talk a bit about the configuration of the One and an 1/8th mile track that is Gulfstream Park.
Amazingly enough, it wasn’t until this week I learned Gulfstream’s dirt track is actually too long.
That’s right, Gulfstream’s dirt track is actually 17-feet longer than it should be.
Seventeen-feet doesn’t sound like a lot, but when you are talking about horse racing handicapping, every 1/5th second counts. And if you prescribe to the theory that every 1/5th second is about the length of a horse, 17-feet is at least equivalent to a couple 1/5th seconds.
The Daily Racing Form (DRF), Bloodstock Research Information Services (BRIS), and Gulfstream Park are well aware of this anomaly, and to compensate for this, the timing for 1 1/8th races does not begin until the horses hit a timing pole 17-feet past the start/finish line.
(If you like, you can hand-time the Florida Derby, for which you should come up consistently about a half-second slower. This is true for any race at the same distance at Gulfstream.)
Now, let’s say that I time myself running the 100-yard dash a couple times. In one scenario, I start from a stop-and-go position, and the other I start at 110-yards, but only time the last 100. Which do you think would be faster?
Without actually conducting this test, I’m going to go out o a limb and say the scenario in which I pass the timing start at full speed will be a bit faster than the former scenario.
This is basically the advantage that Big Brown received in the Florida Derby when he ran opening fractions of :22 3/5, :45 4/5.
These fractions have been bothering me for a long time, because those are pretty fast early fractions for a three-year-old to run, and not only did Big Brown not fade after running that fast, he pulled away in the stretch.
However, the speed figures given by BRIS (110) and DRF (106) didn’t quite support those fractions.
Now, a 106 Beyer figure is nothing to sneeze at, but considering the dominating run Big Brown had, compounded by the heated fractions, I would have expected those figures to be slightly higher.
If you follow this logic, the next step would be to determine how much time should be added to the fractions to compensate for the 17-foot head start. I came up with a half a second for the first two fractions based on some timing drills I did for the first 34-feet of the Florida Derby.
Half a second isn’t much, but I’m only adding it to the first two fractions. I’m adding 2/5th of a second to the first, and 1/5th to the second, and assuming the impact fades as the horses run more distance. That would mean the fractions for the Florida Derby should be more in line with :23, :46, 1:10, 1:35, 1:49.
If true, those fractions are still solid, and only slightly altered, but may explain why the Beyer figure was 106 instead of 109, and likewise, the BRIS figure was 110 and not 113.
Leaving well enough alone, let’s give Big Brown credit, where credit is due. His Florida Derby effort is still a solid effort by a 3-year-old in only his third lifetime start, and he also was able to secure the lead from the 12-post. No small feat considering the start/finish line is so close to the first turn in 1 1/8th races at Gulfstream.
It will be no surprise when Big Brown is named the morning-line favorite for the Kentucky Derby, but the Kentucky Derby is no ordinary race, and it’s hard to back a horse making his fourth career start in the biggest race of his life.
Will Big Brown make another step forward or digress? More on that at a later time.
Tags: Big Brown, Florida Derby, Horse Racing, Kentucky Derby
